Final Oscar Predictions

Best Picture:

Moonlight
La La Land
Lion
Manchester By the Sea
Fences
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge 

Prediction: La La Land      

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
Denzel Washington, Fences
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Vigo Mortenson, Captain Fantastic
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Prediction: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Best Supporting Actor:
Dev Patel, Lion
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight                                      

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Isabelle Huppert, Elle Ruth Negga, Loving

Prediction: Emma Stone, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea

Prediction: Viola Davis, Fences

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Prediction: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Wouldn't be surprised to see La La Land win Best Picture but see Best Director go to Barry Jenkins. This will be a close race.                                     

Best Cinematography:
La La Land
Lion
Arrival 
Moonlight
Silence

Prediction: La La Land

Best Animated Film:
Zootopia
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
My Life as a Zucchini

Prediction: Zootopia                                      

Best Visual Effects:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
Deepwater Horizon

Prediction: The Jungle Book                                     

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Fences
Moonlight
Lion
Hidden Figures
Arrival          

Prediction: Moonlight                       

Best Original Screenplay:
Manchester By the Sea
La La Land
Hell or High Water
The Lobster
20th Century Women

Prediction: Manchester by the Sea                                      

Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Prediction: Jackie                                      

Best Documentary Feature
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

Prediction: 13th

Best Documentary Short
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Prediction: The White Helmets                                      

Achievement in Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

Prediction: La La Land                                      

Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove 
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
                                  

Prediction: The Salesman

Actually have not seen any of the nominees in this category. Just going by what I've heard and read. Plus, due to the director of The Salesman boycotting the Oscars over Donald Trump many may have voted for it as a show of support. 

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

Prediction: Star Trek: Beyond

Best Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

Prediction: La La Land                                 

Best Original Song
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land
"Can’t Stop The Feeling" from Trolls
"City Of Stars" from La La Land
"The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story
"How Far I’ll Go" from Moana 

Prediction: City of Stars, La La Land                                     

Achievement in Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers    

Prediction: La La Land                           

Best Animated Short Film
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Prediction: Piper          

Haven't seen any of the shorts either. Just taking a shot in the dark.                       

Best Live Action Short Film
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

Prediction: Sing                                      

Achievement in Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully    

Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge                           

Achievement in Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge                                  

Why is Viola Davis in the supporting actress category?

With the Oscars only a few short days away, they've been on my mind a lot recently. I've been thinking about who may win while trying to nail down some final predictions but the one thing that crossed my mind that has bothered me so much that I can't stop thinking about it is why the heck is Viola Davis in the supporting actress category and not the lead actress category.

"Category fraud" as it's been called isn't really anything new when it comes to the Academy Awards. There's been many cases of it before even as recent as last year. Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl and Rooney Mara in Carol were two examples last year of this. Both were questionably lead actresses in their movies but both were in the supporting actress category. Vikander ended up winning. After having recently watched Fences, Viola Davis was definitely the female lead and this definitely seems like one of the most egregious cases of category fraud. She actually won the Tony for lead actress in a play for the same role.The decision on what category an actor or actress gets placed in ultimately comes down to the producers and what category they will campaign for for their actors. In this case, Viola Davis was campaigned for supporting actress, most likely to increase her chances of winning. I don't agree with how that works. You shouldn't just be placed in one category or another to increase your chances of winning. It should come down to screen time and other related factors.

When I wrote about my Oscar nomination thoughts last month, I mentioned how I thought this category would be a close race between Davis, Michelle Williams, and Naomie Harris but really, Viola Davis winning in this category is one of the biggest locks of the Oscars this year. I would be incredibly shocked if she didn't win. I actually think she would still have a great shot of winning even if she was in the lead actress category. Best lead actress contenders Emma Stone and Natalie Portman should be relieved she's not competing with them. Plus, I'm sure Davis would much rather win the much more prestigious lead actress Oscar rather than the supporting one. On the flip side of that, I don't think it's fair to Michelle Williams and Naomie Harris who gave great performances in actual supporting roles that they have to compete with Davis.

This isn't the first case of "category fraud" and won't be the last and I wouldn't hold my breath for the Academy to make any changes any time soon. With everything being said, you can count on Viola Davis winning the Oscar for best supporting actress.

What I Learned From Quentin Tarantino's True Romance Commentary

Lately I've started to get into listening to the commentary tracks on movies. They're very insightful and are a great way to see how the movie was made and to also hear interesting stories about the film as well. I watched one of my favorite movies True Romance, directed by Tony Scott and written by Quentin Tarantino, and then immediately watched it again with commentary on by Tarantino. Here are some interesting things I learned from it. This is an idea I can't take credit for though as Film School Rejects is what inspired me to do this with their series on commentaries.

•Quentin starts off by saying True Romance was the first script he ever wrote. He says he started out writing scripts in the 7th grade but could never finish any of them.

•Tarantino mentions that Clarence's (Christian Slater) line in the opening scene about how if he had to have sex with any man it would be Elvis was a line that Tarantino took from his first film, My Best Friend's Birthday, that he financed from his minimum wage job at a video store.

•Clarence's goes to see a Sonny Chiba kung fu triple feature of Streetfighter, Return of the Street Fighter, and Sister Street Fighter. Tarantino mentions that that is a triple feature he's seen and then drops some film knowledge on us by saying it's the first movie to be rated X in the United States for violence.

•Tarantino says True Romance is the most autobiographical film he's made and that the character of Clarence is partly based on him.

•Tarantino mentions that we first began writing the script he had Joan Cusack in mind for the role of Alabama (Patricia Arquette) and Robert Carradine in mind for the role of Clarence.

•In a scene where Alabama is watching TV the movie A Better Tomorrow II is on. Despite Tarantino's love of that movie, it was actually Tony Scott's idea to have that movie on. In the script the movie playing was the kung fu movie Master of the Flying Guillotine.

•Tarantino mentions that exploitation film director William Lustig almost directed the film but Tarantino didn't think he'd be ready to make the jump into more commercial big budget filmmaking.

•Tarantino starts talking about how much he loves Tony Scott's work. He says at the time around the early 90s it wasn't popular to like Tony Scott and his work but he specifically names Days of Thunder and Revenge as movies he likes by him. He got to meet him on the set of The Last Boy Scout and Tarantino let Scott read his script for Reservoir Dogs and Scott wanted to direct that film but Tarantino said no and wanted him to direct True Romance instead.

•Tarantino mentions how Michael Rapaport's character Dick Ritchie, a struggling actor, is also semi- autobiographical of him when he was auditioning trying to become an actor.

•Pulp Fiction was in preproduction around the time of True Romance's release. Tarantino's first viewing of True Romance was at the premier of the film where he brought along the whole cast of Pulp Fiction.

•Tarantino had a chance to direct True Romance after the success of Reservoir Dogs but turned it down wanting to move on and pursue other things. He compared it to an ex-girlfriend you've had good times with but have moved on from.

•Tarantino mentions he was never on the set of the film. He was trusting in Tony Scott and wanted to see his world through another director.

•Tarantino mentions how close the final film was shot to his original script except with the structure. It written as non-linear.

•Tarantino considers the scene between Christopher Walken and Dennis Hopper to be one of his proudest moments of his entire career. He considers it to be almost too good and that a lot movies can't survive having such a great scene so early in the movie because the rest of the movie can't live up to that scene, but that True Romance survives in this case.

•Tarantino says the Sicilian scene about how the Moors conquered Sicily and reproduced with their women to give Sicilians their look came to him from his mother's friend's brother Big D who told him the story. He based Samuel L. Jackson's character in the movie on him.

•Quentin praises Brad Pitt's performance as Floyd saying he steals the third act of the film. Floyd is Tarantino's imagining of a stereotypical roommate who does nothing outside of getting stoned and laying around watching TV.

•Another change made to Tarantino's original script was the rollercoaster scene. Tarantino originally had it taking place at a zoo but thought it was a good change.

•Tarantino says using Doctor Zhivago as a codename for cocaine is one of the most clever things he's written. He says when you think of Doctor Zhivago, you think of snow.

•Tarantino considers it to be a perfect date movie because it's fun and has action and romance. He says he often gets asked if he'll do a romantic movie and he says he has referring to this movie then they'll say "I mean a real romantic movie."

•Tarantino mentions this is his mom's favorite movie of his.

•Tarantino mentions he's not a fan of the posters hanging in Dick and Floyd's apartment. He says there's $4,000 worth of framing that they wouldn't be able to afford.

•Quentin mentions that footage playing in the movie producer's apartment that supposed to be for a new film of his is actually from Platoon.

•Clarence says "most of these movies that win a lot of Oscars, I can't stand them. They're all safe coffee table, geriatric dog shit. All those assholes make are unwatchable movies from unreadable books. Mad Max that's a movie. The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly that's a movie. Rio Bravo that's a movie." Quentin says that was exactly his philosophy at the time being an opinionated movie geek. He goes on to say that movie geeks know more about movies and have stronger opinions than most of the executives and agents in Hollywood. He says having a strong opinion in Hollywood is like a super power.

•Tarantino admits his love of Mexican standoffs leading up to the films climactic shootout. He also wants to clarify that he didn't steal the standoff from John Woo's earlier films such as the Better Tomorrow movies that he had written the script before those movies came out even though True Romance came out after those movies. Reservoir Dogs also ended in a Mexican standoff.

•The original ending that Quentin wrote had Clarence dying and director Tony Scott wanted to change it to let him live and Tarantino pleaded with Scott not to. However, Scott convinced Tarantino to let him live and Tarantino agreed and said that it worked best for Scott's vision of film.

An Updated List of the Movies I've Watched

Started tracking the movies I've watched on bluray.com in 2014. Tracking what you watch is great because you can see exactly what you've watched, when, and how many movies you've watched. It's fun to go back and look at previous years movies you've watched. Don't think I'll ever not track the movies I've watched.

2014 List

2015 List

2016 List

January

1.) 1/1 War Dogs (BD) *
2.) 1/2 Moana (T) *
3.) 1/3 The Wolfpack (N) *
4.) 1/4 The Lobster (I) *
5.) 1/5 Train to Busan (I) *
6.) 1/6 Gleason (A) *
7.) 1/9 La La Land (T) *
8.) 1/10 Anything Else (DVD) *
9.) 1/11 Blue Jasmine (BD) *
10.) 1/12 The Purple Rose of Cairo (BD)
11.) 1/13 Hidden Figures (T) *
12.) 1/16 Midnight in Paris (BD) *
13.) 1/17 Earthquake (BD) *
14.) 1/18 Bad Influence (DVD) *
15.) 1/19 10 Rillington Place (BD) *
16.) 1/20 Sully (R) *
17.) 1/21 Live by Night (T) *
18.) 1/22 Hunt for the Wilderpeople (R) *
19.) 1/23 Moonlight (T) *
20.) 1/24 Captain Fantastic (R) *
21.) 1/24 Carrie (1976) (BD)
22.) 1/25 Raising Cain (BD) *
23.) 1/25 Passion (DVD) *
24.) 1/26 Carlito's Way (BD) *
25.) 1/27 Body Double (BD) *
26.) 1/27 De Palma (I) *
27.) 1/28 Lion (T) *
28.) 1/29 The Conjuring 2 (BD) *
29.) 1/30 Nick of Time (DVD) *
30.) 1/30 Split (T) *
31.) 1/31 Unbreakable (BD)

February
32.) 2/1 Something Wild (BD) *
33.) 2/2 Working Girl (BD) *
34.) 2/3 Phantasm (BD) *
35.) 2/4 Phantasm II (BD) *
36.) 2/5 Black Sunday (1977) (DVD) *
37.) 2/6 Rolling Thunder (BD) *
38.) 2/7 Nerve (BD) *
39.) 2/10 John Wick (BD)
40.) 2/11 John Wick: Chapter 2 (BD) *
41.) 2/12 Sorcerer (BD) *
42.) 2/12 The Taking of Pelham One Two Three (1974) *
43.) 2/13 The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 (BD) *
44.) 2/14 Fences (T) *
45.) 2/15 Revenge (BD)
46.) 2/16 True Romance (BD)
47.) 2/18 Take Me Home Tonight (BD) *
48.) 2/19 The Great Wall (T) *
49.) 2/19 House of Sand and Fog (DVD) *
50.) 2/20 Chariots of Fire (BD) *
51.) 2/21 Kramer vs. Kramer (DVD) *
52.) 2/22 Driving Miss Daisy (BD) *
53.) 2/23 In the Heat of the Night (BD) *
54.) 2/24 Get Out (T) *

BD - Blu ray
T - Theater
N - Netflix
A - Amazon video
I - iTunes rental
R - Redbox

* first time watch                 

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